Notebooks

1. Data Wrangling
2. Feature Engineering
3. Exploratory Data Analysis
4. Outlier Analysis
5. Linear Regression
6. Poisson Regression
7. Time Series Analysis
8. Modeling
9. XGBoost
10. Model Evaluation

Experiment Tracker

The Data Pipeline was deployed using a combination of AWS services and Streamlit. To delivery predictions, several notebooks were created such as feature engineering and XGBoost modeling to achieve a Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE) of 0.14699

To keep track of different models tested, an Excel file is created (with help of a Python class to document all versions.

Experiment Tracker Class

Experiment Tracker - Sheet Ideas

Experiment Tracker - Sheet Experiments

After Exploratory, Outlier, and Time Series Analyses, a Decision Tree learning algorithm was chosen as primary model type for the experiments.

Modeling

Different supervised algorithms were tested with little feature engineering and XGBoost yields the best results. Check out the Notebook.

Feature Importances Plot from XGBoost model

Several XGBoost models were built and logged with Experiment Tracker Class mentioned above. XGBoost Tracker

Evaluation

Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE) was the main metric used to evaluate and compare the models.

\[NRMSE = \frac{RSME}{y_{max} - y_{min}}\]

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Daily Rentals Prediction Plot